Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
